Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market – Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Type (Automatic, Manual, Dual Clutch), By Fuel Type (Petrol, Diesel, CNG), By Gear Type (5-6, 7-8, 9-10, Above 10), By Region, By Competition, 2021-2031F

Forecast Period	2027-2031
Market Size (2025)	USD 11.91 Billion
CAGR (2026-2031)	6.02%
Fastest Growing Segment	Dual Clutch
Largest Market	Asia Pacific
Market Size (2031)	USD 16.91 Billion

Market Overview

The Global Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market will grow from USD 11.91 Billion in 2025 to USD 16.91 Billion by 2031 at a 6.02% CAGR. The Global Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market encompasses the engineering and supply of gearbox mechanisms essential for managing power and torque in trucks and buses exceeding 3.5 tons. The sector is chiefly driven by the expansion of global logistics networks and rising government expenditure on infrastructure which sustains the need for durable heavy-duty transport. Furthermore, strict regulatory mandates regarding fuel efficiency are accelerating the shift toward automated manual transmissions that offer superior operational economy compared to traditional manual systems.

Nevertheless, market expansion is threatened by economic volatility and high acquisition costs for modern transmission systems which can delay fleet modernization. Manufacturers must navigate these financial barriers while addressing supply chain complexities that affect production volumes. Illustrating this contraction in demand, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, in 2024, new European Union truck registrations declined by 6.3 percent to a total of 327,896 units. This downturn underscores the susceptibility of the heavy vehicle component market to broader macroeconomic headwinds.

Key Market Drivers

The expansion of global logistics and e-commerce industries serves as a primary catalyst for market growth, necessitating robust fleets for high-frequency freight transport. As consumer reliance on rapid delivery intensifies, fleet operators must acquire vehicles equipped with reliable transmission systems to ensure uptime. This correlation between freight demand and vehicle procurement is evident in major manufacturing hubs. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, January 2024, in the 'December 2023 Automotive Production and Sales' report, the sales of heavy-duty trucks in China surged to 911,000 units in 2023, representing a 36 percent year-on-year increase. Such volume growth directly expands the addressable market for transmission manufacturers who must supply components that balance torque management with modern supply chain demands.

Simultaneously, the transition toward electric and hybrid commercial vehicle powertrains is reshaping the transmission sector. Electric motors require specialized architectures, such as multi-speed gearboxes integrated into e-axles, to optimize range and torque delivery. This forces suppliers to innovate rapidly to accommodate the properties of electrified systems. The momentum of this pivot is quantifiable globally. According to the International Energy Agency, April 2024, in the 'Global EV Outlook 2024', global sales of electric trucks reached nearly 54,000 units in 2023, a 35 percent increase compared to the previous year. To maintain competitiveness, OEMs are maintaining substantial output; according to Daimler Truck, in 2024, the company reported global sales of 526,053 vehicles for the 2023 fiscal year.

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Key Market Challenges

Economic volatility and the substantial capital required for modern transmission systems create significant barriers to market expansion. Fleet operators frequently delay the acquisition of new heavy-duty vehicles when faced with uncertain financial climates or high operational costs. This hesitation to upgrade aging fleets directly impacts the supply chain, as the reduction in new vehicle orders leads to a corresponding decrease in the requirement for fresh gearbox assemblies. When logistics companies prioritize capital conservation over modernization, original equipment manufacturers must adjust their output, leading to reduced production volumes for transmission suppliers.

This trend of reduced investment is reflected in recent industry metrics. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, in the third quarter of 2024, heavy goods vehicle registrations in the United Kingdom decreased by 6.0 percent to 10,839 units. A contraction of this nature demonstrates how broader economic pressures translate into lower procurement rates for essential components. Consequently, transmission manufacturers experience disrupted revenue streams and inventory challenges, effectively stalling growth within the medium and heavy commercial vehicle sector during periods of financial instability.

Key Market Trends

The Incorporation of Advanced Telematics for Real-Time Diagnostics is fundamentally altering the value chain by prioritizing lifecycle management over initial hardware sales. As transmission complexity increases, manufacturers are leveraging connectivity to provide predictive maintenance and optimize fleet uptime, which creates a stable revenue stream even when new vehicle demand fluctuates. This strategic pivot toward service-oriented models, enabled by diagnostic data, allows suppliers to mitigate the impact of cyclical manufacturing downturns. This trend is evident in recent financial performances; according to Sustainable Bus, March 2025, in the article 'ZF sales and EBIT dropped in 2024', ZF's aftermarket division achieved an organic sales increase of 12 percent to reach €3.6 billion, contrasting with broader declines in the new equipment sector.

The Widespread Adoption of Automated Manual Transmissions (AMTs) is expanding rapidly into emerging regions, driven by the need for fleet modernization in markets traditionally dominated by manual gearboxes. Global OEMs are successfully penetrating these territories by introducing sophisticated AMT-equipped heavy-duty trucks that offer superior fuel economy and driver comfort suited for challenging terrains. This geographic broadening of advanced transmission technology is driving unit volume growth for premium truck brands outside of established European and North American hubs. According to Volkswagen Group, March 2025, in the 'TRATON GROUP continued its successful course in 2024' report, Scania increased its global unit sales by 6 percent to 102,100 vehicles, a performance primarily attributed to strong growth in the New Vehicles business in South America where modernized powertrains are gaining traction.

Segmental Insights

In the Global Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market, the Dual Clutch segment is recognized as the fastest growing category. This rapid expansion is primarily attributed to the technology's ability to deliver uninterrupted torque, ensuring continuous power during gear changes, which is essential for maintaining momentum with heavy loads. Furthermore, stringent carbon emission targets established by regulatory bodies like the European Commission are driving the adoption of these highly efficient systems. Fleet operators are increasingly utilizing this technology to significantly lower fuel consumption and enhance driver comfort, thereby reducing the total cost of ownership.

Regional Insights

Asia Pacific holds the leading position in the global medium and heavy commercial vehicles transmission market, driven by rapid industrialization and extensive infrastructure projects in countries like China and India. The expanding logistics sector requires robust fleets, thereby increasing the production of heavy-duty trucks. Additionally, strict emission standards mandated by authorities such as India's Ministry of Road Transport and Highways encourage the adoption of efficient transmission technologies to enhance fuel economy. The strong presence of major original equipment manufacturers in the region further supports this dominance through high manufacturing volumes and localized supply chains.

Recent Developments

• In October 2024, Eaton Cummins Automated Transmission Technologies formally launched the Endurant HD V, a new automated manual transmission specifically engineered for demanding vocational truck applications. The robust 12-speed transmission was designed to support gross combination weight ratings of up to 70,000 pounds and featured specialized capabilities such as an extreme-duty clutch for improved low-speed maneuvering. This significant product expansion directly addressed the specific, rugged needs of vocational fleets by offering essential features like an off-highway performance mode and dual power takeoff openings, reinforcing the joint venture's commitment to serving the diverse technical requirements of the commercial vehicle sector.
• In September 2024, Allison Transmission announced a strategic collaboration with Cummins Inc. to integrate the Allison eGen Flex electric hybrid propulsion system with the Cummins B-Series engine. This partnership explicitly aimed to certify the combined propulsion solution to meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's stringent "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles – Phase 3," which become effective in 2027. The initiative focused on providing the transit market with a highly reliable, low-emission drivetrain capable of operating in engine-off mode for significant portions of a route, thereby effectively reducing noise and harmful emissions in dense urban environments.
• In June 2024, ZF Friedrichshafen AG unveiled the TraXon 2 Hybrid, a new transmission system explicitly designed for heavy commercial vehicles, during its Global Technology Day presentation. This innovative hybrid transmission was engineered to facilitate the industry's transition towards decarbonized mobility by enabling significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions while strictly maintaining the robust performance capabilities expected of combustion engines. The system was strategically positioned as a central component of the company's extensive portfolio of reduced-emission driveline technologies, aiming to effectively support global truck manufacturers in meeting increasingly stringent environmental targets and regulatory standards.
• In January 2024, Volvo Trucks North America introduced the completely reimagined Volvo VNL Class 8 truck, which featured significant powertrain advancements including an optimized I-Shift automated manual transmission. The updated transmission solution was explicitly designed to deliver up to 30% faster shift speeds compared to previous generations, thereby contributing substantially to the vehicle's overall fuel efficiency improvement and dynamic performance. This strategic product launch highlighted the company's continued focus on integrating advanced, intelligent transmission technologies to enhance driver productivity, safety, and operational efficiency, satisfying the rigorous demands of the North American heavy-duty commercial vehicle market.

Key Market Players

• Allison Transmission
• ZF Friedrichshafen AG
• Eaton Corporation
• BorgWarner Inc.
• Aisin Corporation
• Dana Incorporated
• Jatco Ltd.
• Magna International Inc.
• Grupo KUO SAB de CV
• Ricardo Plc

By Type	By Fuel Type	By Gear Type	By Region
Automatic Manual Dual Clutch	Petrol Diesel CNG	5-6 7-8 9-10 Above 10	North America Europe Asia Pacific South America Middle East & Africa

Report Scope:

In this report, the Global Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:

• Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market, By Type:

• Automatic
• Manual
• Dual Clutch

• Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market, By Fuel Type:

• Petrol
• Diesel
• CNG

• Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market, By Gear Type:

• 5-6
• 7-8
• 9-10
• Above 10

• Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market, By Region:

• North America
• United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• Europe
• France
• United Kingdom
• Italy
• Germany
• Spain
• Asia Pacific
• China
• India
• Japan
• Australia
• South Korea
• South America
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Colombia
• Middle East & Africa
• South Africa
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE