Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market – Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Vehicle Type (Light, Medium, Heavy), By Application (HVAC, Powertrain Cooling, Fluid Transport, Others), By Propulsion (ICE, Electric), By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F

Forecast Period	2027-2031
Market Size (2025)	USD 36.62 Billion
CAGR (2026-2031)	8.29%
Fastest Growing Segment	Medium
Largest Market	Asia Pacific
Market Size (2031)	USD 59.05 Billion

Market Overview

The Global Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market will grow from USD 36.62 Billion in 2025 to USD 59.05 Billion by 2031 at a 8.29% CAGR. Commercial Vehicle Thermal Systems encompass the integrated technologies designed to regulate temperature across the powertrain, cabin, and battery packs of trucks, vans, and buses. The market is primarily driven by stringent global emission regulations necessitating higher engine efficiency and the rapid electrification of logistics fleets which requires precise thermal management to ensure battery safety and range. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, in 2024, new EU van registrations increased by 8.3 percent, indicating robust demand for light commercial vehicles that directly fuels the need for these thermal regulation components.

One significant challenge impeding market expansion is the high development cost associated with advanced thermal architectures for electric vehicles. These systems are technically complex as they must actively manage heat for the battery pack and power electronics simultaneously, creating integration difficulties and elevating overall vehicle prices which may deter adoption among cost sensitive fleet operators.

Key Market Drivers

The accelerated adoption of electric and hybrid commercial vehicles is fundamentally reshaping the thermal management landscape, as these platforms require sophisticated architectures to maintain optimal battery operating temperatures. Unlike internal combustion engines, electric powertrains demand precise thermal regulation to ensure battery safety, maximize range, and facilitate rapid charging, necessitating the integration of high-performance liquid cooling plates and complex loop separation strategies. This electrification trend is evident in the surging demand for zero-emission heavy-duty units. According to the International Energy Agency, April 2024, in the 'Global EV Outlook 2024', sales of electric trucks globally increased by 35 percent in 2023 compared to the previous year, surpassing 50,000 units. Furthermore, the market is bolstered by growth in public transport sectors which also rely on heavy-duty thermal components; according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, January 2025, new EU bus registrations grew by 9.2 percent in 2024, highlighting a resilient segment for thermal system integration.

Simultaneously, the expansion of global cold chain logistics and refrigerated transportation is creating distinct opportunities for advanced thermal regulation beyond the powertrain. As consumer demand for perishable goods rises, fleet operators are investing in transport refrigeration units (TRUs) that offer tighter temperature control and improved energy efficiency. This sector is also transitioning toward electric TRUs to eliminate emissions during loading and unloading, further merging propulsion and refrigeration thermal demands. The financial performance of key industry players reflects this sector's robustness; according to Trane Technologies, October 2024, in the 'Third Quarter 2024 Results', the company’s Europe, Middle East, and Africa segment, which encompasses transport refrigeration systems, reported an 8 percent increase in net revenues year-over-year. This growth underscores the critical role of thermal management in preserving cargo integrity within an expanding global logistics network.

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Key Market Challenges

The substantial development costs associated with thermal management architectures for electric commercial vehicles present a considerable obstacle to market expansion. As the industry shifts toward electrification, the technical requirements for regulating temperatures in battery packs and power electronics become increasingly intricate. This complexity forces manufacturers to invest heavily in specialized components and integration processes, which significantly raises the overall production cost. These expenses are subsequently reflected in the final vehicle price, creating a barrier to entry for logistics companies that prioritize immediate capital efficiency over long-term operational savings.

This financial constraint directly reduces the rate at which fleets transition to electric platforms, thereby dampening the volume of orders for advanced thermal systems. The impact of these economic pressures on adoption rates is evident in recent industry performance data. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, in the first three quarters of 2024, new registrations of electrically chargeable vans declined by 12.8 percent compared to the previous year. This contraction underscores how high vehicle costs, driven partly by complex thermal integration, limit the market's growth potential.

Key Market Trends

The Consolidation into Integrated Thermal Management Modules is becoming a dominant trend as manufacturers seek to optimize space and reduce weight in increasingly complex electric commercial vehicle architectures. Instead of sourcing individual pumps, valves, and heat exchangers, OEMs are shifting toward "one-box" solutions that combine these elements into a single, pre-tested unit, thereby streamlining assembly lines and minimizing coolant leak paths. This structural shift toward modular efficiency is reflected in the recent financial performance of major component suppliers who are pivoting their portfolios. According to Mahle, April 2024, in the 'Annual Report 2023', the company’s Thermal Management business unit sales grew by 4.1 percent to 4.6 billion euros, driven largely by the intense demand for these integrated electrification technologies.

Simultaneously, the market is undergoing a critical Transition to Low-Global Warming Potential Refrigerants, compelled by tightening environmental mandates such as the EU F-Gas regulations and the U.S. AIM Act. Fleet operators are rapidly replacing legacy hydrofluorocarbon systems with sustainable alternatives like carbon dioxide and propane, which necessitates the re-engineering of compressors and seals to handle higher operating pressures and flammability risks. This industry-wide move toward compliant, environmentally advanced cooling technologies is generating significant capital turnover in the logistics sector. According to Carrier Global Corporation, October 2024, in the 'Third Quarter 2024 Results', the company reported that its container refrigeration sales grew by over 30 percent, underscoring the aggressive rate at which the transport logistics network is upgrading to modern, regulation-compliant thermal assets.

Segmental Insights

The Medium segment is currently positioning itself as the fastest-growing category within the Global Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market, driven primarily by the rapid electrification of medium-duty fleets for urban logistics and last-mile delivery. As e-commerce expands, operators are increasingly transitioning to electric trucks for predictable short-haul routes, creating a surge in demand for advanced battery thermal management systems essential for safety and range optimization. Furthermore, stringent emission mandates from regulatory bodies, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are compelling manufacturers to integrate higher-efficiency thermal architectures in conventional engines, further accelerating development in this sector.

Regional Insights

Asia Pacific maintains a dominant position in the global commercial vehicle thermal system market, driven by rapid industrialization and expanding infrastructure projects. The region experiences high demand for heavy-duty trucks and logistics vehicles, particularly in manufacturing hubs like China and India. Furthermore, stringent emission regulations, such as those overseen by India’s Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, compel manufacturers to adopt efficient thermal management solutions to minimize environmental impact. This combination of robust vehicle production volumes and strict regulatory compliance requirements establishes Asia Pacific as the primary revenue generator in this sector.

Recent Developments

• In October 2024, Grayson Thermal Systems introduced advanced thermal management products for the electric commercial vehicle market during The Battery Show North America. The company unveiled a new magnetic drive electric water pump, which utilized seal-less technology to prevent coolant leaks and ensure reliable circulation in heavy-duty applications. Additionally, the company launched a 5kW electric water heater designed to provide rapid heating for cabin comfort and battery thermal stability in cold environments. These innovations were developed to meet the specific requirements of electric transit buses and commercial vehicles, offering robust solutions for thermal regulation in zero-emission transport.
• In September 2024, Valeo showcased its latest advancements in thermal management systems for the commercial transport sector at the IAA Transportation exhibition in Hanover. The company introduced the FlexHeater, an innovative smart heating solution that utilizes interior cabin surfaces to deliver thermal comfort to the driver while minimizing energy consumption. Alongside this, the company presented its intelligent heat pump technology and battery thermal control systems, which were optimized to enhance the range and efficiency of electric trucks and vans. These developments underscored the company's commitment to supporting the electrification of logistics fleets through efficient and integrated thermal management architectures.
• In July 2024, Modine Manufacturing Company announced the expansion of its thermal management portfolio with the launch of the Cabin Climate System, specifically engineered for commercial and off-highway electric vehicles. This new solution was designed to deliver precise temperature control for vehicle cabins, providing immediate heating and cooling capabilities to ensure operator comfort. The system integrated a high-voltage electric compressor, a coolant heater, and proprietary heat exchangers into a compact, plug-and-play module. By offering a standardized solution, the company aimed to simplify the integration process for original equipment manufacturers and reduce the complexity of developing thermal systems for electrified heavy-duty applications.
• In July 2024, BorgWarner Inc. secured a major contract to supply its high-voltage eFan system for a series of heavy- and medium-duty battery electric vehicles manufactured by a global automotive company in North America. The production of these thermal management components was scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2027. The eFan system was designed to provide scalable performance with power up to 10 kW, ensuring reliable cooling for electric propulsion components under varying operating conditions. This agreement represented the company's largest business win for this specific technology, highlighting the growing demand for robust thermal solutions in the commercial electric vehicle market.

Key Market Players

• Robert Bosch GmbH
• Dana Incorporated
• MAHLE GmbH
• Gentherm Inc.
• Hanon Systems
• Denso Corporation
• BorgWarner Inc.
• Valeo SE
• Modine Manufacturing Company
• Schaeffler AG

By Vehicle Type	By Application	By Propulsion	By Region
Light Medium Heavy	HVAC Powertrain Cooling Fluid Transport Others	ICE Electric	North America Europe Asia Pacific South America Middle East & Africa

Report Scope:

In this report, the Global Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:

• Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market, By Vehicle Type:

• Light
• Medium
• Heavy

• Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market, By Application:

• HVAC
• Powertrain Cooling
• Fluid Transport
• Others

• Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market, By Propulsion:

• ICE
• Electric

• Commercial Vehicle Thermal System Market, By Region:

• North America
• United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• Europe
• France
• United Kingdom
• Italy
• Germany
• Spain
• Asia Pacific
• China
• India
• Japan
• Australia
• South Korea
• South America
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Colombia
• Middle East & Africa
• South Africa
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE