Condensed Milk Market – Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Product Type (Dairy, Non-Dairy), By Packaging Type (Cans, Tubes, Bottles), By Sales Channel (Hypermarkets/Supermarkets, Convenience Stores, Specialty Stores, Online, Others), By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F

Forecast Period	2027-2031
Market Size (2025)	USD 4.11 Billion
CAGR (2026-2031)	4.82%
Fastest Growing Segment	Non-Dairy
Largest Market	North America
Market Size (2031)	USD 5.45 Billion

Market Overview

The Global Condensed Milk Market will grow from USD 4.11 Billion in 2025 to USD 5.45 Billion by 2031 at a 4.82% CAGR. Condensed milk is defined as a concentrated dairy product obtained by evaporating water from cow's milk, often enriched with sugar to ensure preservation and a thick texture. The market is primarily driven by the product’s extended shelf life, which is critical in regions with limited cold chain infrastructure, and its extensive application in the confectionery and bakery industries as a versatile sweetener and binding agent. According to the European Milk Market Observatory, in 2024, the production of condensed milk in the European Union increased by 8.5 percent during the first nine months, underscoring the sustained demand for this stable dairy ingredient.

However, the market faces a significant challenge regarding evolving consumer health priorities. The high sugar content inherent in sweetened condensed milk raises concerns among health-conscious demographics, which may impede market expansion as consumers increasingly shift toward low-calorie or plant-based alternatives.

Key Market Drivers

Rising demand from the bakery and confectionery sectors acts as a primary catalyst for the condensed milk market, where the ingredient is prized for its ability to enhance texture, sweetness, and shelf stability in fudges, cakes, and desserts. This industrial consumption drives significant cross-border trade as food manufacturers seek high-quality concentrated dairy to support large-scale processing needs. The thick consistency of condensed milk serves as a critical binding agent in various recipes, necessitating consistent import volumes to offset fluctuations in fresh milk availability. According to Dairynews.today, February 2025, imports of condensed and dry milk and cream into Russia surged by 26.5 percent to reach 132,100 tons in 2024, reflecting the intense industrial appetite for these versatile ingredients within the food processing landscape.

The proliferation of modern retail and e-commerce channels further amplifies market growth by enhancing product accessibility for both household consumers and commercial buyers. Leading dairy corporations are aggressively expanding their distribution footprints into international supermarkets and online platforms, capitalizing on the product's shelf-stable nature to penetrate new geographical regions efficiently. According to Vinamilk, November 2024, the company recorded a 15.7 percent increase in export revenue during the first nine months of the year, driven by the strong performance of key products like sweetened condensed milk in foreign markets. To sustain such extensive global operations, major industry players maintain immense financial scale; for instance, according to FrieslandCampina, February 2025, the cooperative generated 12.9 billion euros in revenue for the full year 2024, underscoring the substantial economic activity underpinning global dairy distribution networks.

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Key Market Challenges

The inherent high sugar content of sweetened condensed milk presents a substantial barrier to market growth as consumer health priorities evolve. This product typically relies on significant amounts of added sugar for preservation and texture, which directly contradicts the rising global trend toward reducing caloric intake and managing blood glucose levels. As shoppers increasingly scrutinize nutritional labels for added sweeteners, traditional condensed milk is frequently categorized as an occasional indulgence rather than a dietary staple. This perception limits its penetration in health-oriented households and restricts its potential volume growth in developed markets where wellness trends are most established.

Market data substantiates this shifting behavior and the resulting pressure on sugary dairy products. According to the International Food Information Council, in 2024, 66 percent of consumers reported actively trying to limit their sugar consumption, representing a clear increase from the prior year. This widespread avoidance of added sugars hampers the ability of the condensed milk market to expand its user base beyond confectionery applications. Consequently, the industry faces distinct headwinds in maintaining sales volumes among demographics that are systematically removing high-sugar ingredients from their purchasing routines.

Key Market Trends

The Shift Toward Premium and Artisanal Product Offerings is redefining the global condensed milk landscape as manufacturers move beyond commodity sweetening to cater to sophisticated culinary applications. This trend is characterized by the production of high-quality, regulatory-compliant concentrates designed for discerning international markets and artisanal coffee culture, where texture and purity are paramount. Brands are increasingly upgrading production standards to meet stringent quality controls in developed regions, thereby elevating the product's status from a basic staple to a premium ingredient. According to The Investor, January 2025, Vinamilk reported a 12.6 percent year-on-year increase in revenue from foreign markets in 2024, a growth trajectory significantly supported by the successful entry of its condensed milk products into the highly regulated European market.

Simultaneously, the Adoption of Convenient Squeeze Tube and Spouted Pouch Packaging is transforming the user experience for both household consumers and food service operators. This trend addresses the usability limitations of traditional metal cans by introducing flexible formats that offer resealability, precise dosage, and improved hygiene. For the food service sector, bulk bag-in-box solutions are gaining traction as they minimize waste and streamline back-of-house operations in cafes and bakeries. According to SIG, February 2025, in the 'Annual Report 2024', the company reported a significant increase in new contract wins for spouted pouch and bag-in-box systems, reflecting the growing industrial and consumer preference for these versatile packaging formats over rigid alternatives.

Segmental Insights

Based on leading market intelligence, the Non-Dairy segment is currently the fastest-growing category within the Global Condensed Milk Market. This rapid expansion is primarily driven by the escalating global prevalence of lactose intolerance and a decisive consumer shift toward vegan and flexitarian lifestyles. Shoppers are increasingly seeking plant-based alternatives derived from sources such as coconut and oat, which provide the essential texture and viscosity required for baking and confectionery applications. Furthermore, heightened awareness regarding environmental sustainability and animal welfare is accelerating the adoption of these dairy-free options, compelling manufacturers to diversify their product portfolios to meet surging demand.

Regional Insights

North America maintains a leading position in the Global Condensed Milk Market, driven by consistent demand from the established bakery and confectionery sectors. Commercial manufacturers and household consumers rely heavily on this ingredient for producing diverse desserts and sweet treats. This market dominance is reinforced by an extensive retail network that maximizes product availability across the region. Furthermore, strict adherence to quality regulations established by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) ensures high manufacturing standards. These factors collectively uphold consumer confidence and secure the region's primary status in the global industry.

Recent Developments

• In October 2025, Nestlé expanded its Carnation product portfolio with the launch of the Pistachio Flavour Drizzle, a premium dessert sauce formulated with a sweetened condensed milk base. This new offering was developed to capitalize on the growing consumer trend for pistachio-flavored treats and was packaged in a multi-serve squeezy bottle for ease of use. The product was designed to be versatile, suitable for topping pancakes, cheesecakes, and ice cream, or for enhancing beverages like lattes and milkshakes. This innovation joined the brand's existing lineup of caramel and chocolate fudge flavors, reinforcing its position in the dessert ingredient category.
• In April 2025, Soprole, a prominent dairy company in Chile, officially entered the domestic condensed milk market with the launch of a new product line. The General Manager of the company highlighted that this expansion represented a strategic entry into a new category, aiming to offer consumers a product deeply rooted in local culinary traditions. The new condensed milk was made available in supermarkets across the country, positioning the brand as a versatile ally for homemade desserts. This launch introduced a new competitor to the sector, challenging established players and offering more variety to Chilean consumers.
• In November 2024, FrieslandCampina announced a strategic partnership with the German dairy cooperative Hochwald to optimize its production network in the Netherlands. Under this multi-year agreement, the company planned to cease the production of sweetened condensed milk at its Leeuwarden facility by June 2026 and outsource this volume to Hochwald’s plant in Bolsward. In return, FrieslandCampina committed to manufacturing evaporated milk for Hochwald at its Leeuwarden site. This collaboration was designed to allow both companies to consolidate specific production lines, thereby enhancing operational efficiency, improving sustainability, and securing their competitiveness in the global dairy market.
• In October 2024, Vinamilk introduced a significant packaging innovation for its flagship condensed milk brand, Ông Thọ, by launching a new format designed to enhance consumer convenience. The company released the product in a resealable one-kilogram carton featuring a new convenient lid, which allows for effortless pouring and better storage while preserving the classic flavor of the milk. This development followed the company's previous introduction of flavored condensed milk in squeezable tubes. The updated packaging was aimed at meeting the evolving needs of modern households and foodservice providers who require practical and hygienic storage solutions for frequently used dairy ingredients.

Key Market Players

• Nestle SA
• Santini Foods, Inc.
• Eagle Family Foods Group LLC
• Arla Foods amba
• Hochwald Foods GmbH
• F&N Dairies (Thailand) Limited
• Morinaga Milk Industry Co. Ltd
• Royal Friesland Campina N.V
• Magnolia Inc
• Borden Dairy Company

By Product Type	By Packaging Type	By Sales Channel	By Region
Dairy Non-Dairy	Cans Tubes Bottles	Hypermarkets/Supermarkets Convenience Stores Specialty Stores Online Others	North America Europe Asia Pacific South America Middle East & Africa

Report Scope:

In this report, the Global Condensed Milk Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:

• Condensed Milk Market, By Product Type:

• Dairy
• Non-Dairy

• Condensed Milk Market, By Packaging Type:

• Cans
• Tubes
• Bottles

• Condensed Milk Market, By Sales Channel:

• Hypermarkets/Supermarkets
• Convenience Stores
• Specialty Stores
• Online
• Others

• Condensed Milk Market, By Region:

• North America
• United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• Europe
• France
• United Kingdom
• Italy
• Germany
• Spain
• Asia Pacific
• China
• India
• Japan
• Australia
• South Korea
• South America
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Colombia
• Middle East & Africa
• South Africa
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE