United States Natural Refrigerants Market, By Type (Carbon Dioxide, Ammonia, Hydrocarbons, Others), By Application (Industrial, Commercial, Domestic), By Region and Competition, Forecast & Opportunities, 2021-2031F

Forecast Period	2027-2031
Market Size (2025)	USD 654.23 Million
CAGR (2026-2031)	5.62%
Fastest Growing Segment	Carbon Dioxide
Largest Market	Midwest
Market Size (2031)	USD 908.25 Million

Market Overview

The United States Natural Refrigerants Market will grow from USD 654.23 Million in 2025 to USD 908.25 Million by 2031 at a 5.62% CAGR. Natural refrigerants include substances such as ammonia, carbon dioxide, and hydrocarbons that occur in nature and provide a sustainable alternative to synthetic cooling agents. The United States market is primarily driven by regulatory frameworks like the AIM Act which mandates the phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons and the increasing commitment of corporations to decarbonization goals. According to the industry organization ATMOsphere, in 2025, the number of food retail stores in the United States utilizing transcritical carbon dioxide systems reached approximately 2,800. This adoption rate highlights the sector's rapid shift toward compliant and environmentally responsible technologies.

A significant challenge hindering the broader expansion of this market is the shortage of qualified technicians skilled in installing and maintaining these advanced systems. The unique safety and pressure requirements of natural refrigerants demand specialized training that remains scarce within the current workforce. This labor gap results in higher implementation costs and project delays which effectively impedes the widespread deployment of these sustainable solutions across the commercial and industrial landscape.

Key Market Drivers

The Enforcement of the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act Mandating HFC Phasedown functions as the primary legislative catalyst reshaping the United States Natural Refrigerants Market. This regulation enforces a strict reduction in the production and consumption of high-global warming potential (GWP) hydrofluorocarbons, effectively compelling retailers and industrial operators to transition toward compliant alternatives like carbon dioxide and ammonia. The market response to this federal mandate is evident in the rapid shift toward low-GWP technologies among leading supermarket chains. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, September 2025, in the 'GreenChill Certified Store Achievements' report, 61% of GreenChill Certified Stores utilized a refrigerant with a GWP of less than 150 in 2024. This compliance-driven migration ensures that natural refrigerants are no longer niche options but essential components for long-term regulatory adherence.

Corporate Sustainability Strategies and Net-Zero Emission Targets Among Major End-Users further accelerate the adoption of these systems, particularly within the food retail and cold chain sectors. As companies strive to meet aggressive decarbonization goals, they are increasingly replacing legacy equipment with energy-efficient natural refrigerant solutions. According to the North American Sustainable Refrigeration Council, in 2024, the number of food retail stores utilizing transcritical CO2 systems was projected to grow by 176% between 2024 and 2028. This demand extends beyond retail into the industrial landscape, where large-scale operators are leveraging advanced technologies to reduce their carbon footprint. According to ATMOsphere, February 2025, in the 'Natural Refrigerants: State of the Industry 2024' report, the number of industrial sites in North America operating low-charge ammonia systems reached 1,230, reflecting a significant expansion of sustainable cooling infrastructure.

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Key Market Challenges

The shortage of qualified technicians constitutes a formidable barrier to the United States Natural Refrigerants Market. Unlike traditional synthetic options, natural refrigerants such as ammonia and carbon dioxide possess unique thermodynamic properties that necessitate rigorous safety protocols and specialized handling. Most of the current workforce lacks the advanced training required to manage the high operating pressures and flammability risks associated with these systems. This scarcity of skilled labor drives up installation costs and causes significant project delays, which discourages commercial and industrial facilities from transitioning to these sustainable technologies.

The severity of this labor crisis is underscored by recent workforce statistics. According to the Sheet Metal and Air Conditioning Contractors’ National Association, in 2025, the industry struggled with approximately 110,000 unfilled technician positions nationwide. This deficit is particularly damaging to the natural refrigerants sector because it represents a specialized subset of an already depleted labor pool. When retailers and industrial operators fear they cannot secure reliable maintenance or timely emergency service due to these workforce gaps, they become reluctant to adopt compliant technologies, effectively stalling market momentum.

Key Market Trends

The increased deployment of propane-based self-contained commercial display cases is rapidly decentralizing supermarket refrigeration architectures across the United States. Retailers are moving away from traditional large centralized racks in favor of these "plug-and-play" micro-systems which utilize R-290, a highly efficient hydrocarbon with negligible global warming potential. This modular approach allows facility managers to bypass the regulatory complexities and extensive piping associated with central plants while effectively managing the strict charge limits imposed on flammable refrigerants. According to ATMOsphere, February 2025, in the 'Natural Refrigerants: State of the Industry 2024' report, there are 3.6 million self-contained hydrocarbon cabinets installed in the U.S. as of December 2024. This massive install base signifies that hydrocarbons have moved beyond niche pilot programs to become a standard solution for scalable, energy-efficient retail cooling.

Concurrently, the retrofitting of legacy HFC systems with secondary CO2 loops has emerged as a pragmatic strategy for retailers seeking compliance without the capital intensity of full system replacements. In this architecture, a primary plant chills liquid carbon dioxide which is then pumped through the store to display cases, significantly reducing the required charge of synthetic refrigerants and minimizing leak rates. This method is particularly attractive for existing stores where installing a high-pressure transcritical system would be cost-prohibitive or operationally disruptive. According to the North American Sustainable Refrigeration Council, in 2024, in the 'Projected Growth of CO2 Refrigeration Systems' report, the number of food retail stores utilizing CO2 secondary systems is projected to grow by 620% between 2024 and 2028. This projected surge highlights how the market is bifurcating between new transcritical builds and these pumped secondary retrofits to meet immediate regulatory deadlines.

Segmental Insights

Carbon Dioxide represents the fastest-growing segment in the United States natural refrigerants market, driven primarily by stringent regulatory actions targeting high-global warming potential substances. The Environmental Protection Agency is actively enforcing the phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons under the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act, compelling commercial sectors to adopt sustainable alternatives. Industry participants favor Carbon Dioxide because it offers a non-flammable and energy-efficient solution that ensures compliance with these federal mandates. Consequently, the shift away from synthetic refrigerants is accelerating the deployment of Carbon Dioxide systems across food retail and cold chain logistics operations.

Regional Insights

Based on data from industry market research, the Midwest dominates the United States Natural Refrigerants Market due to its entrenched status as the nation's industrial and agricultural heartland. This region houses a dense concentration of food and beverage processing facilities that rely heavily on ammonia and carbon dioxide for efficient, large-scale cold storage and logistics. The shift toward these natural alternatives is further propelled by strict adherence to Environmental Protection Agency guidelines aiming to phase out synthetic substances. Consequently, the robust demand for industrial refrigeration modernization secures the Midwest’s position as the leading regional market.

Recent Developments

• In December 2025, Copeland introduced a new transcritical carbon dioxide scroll compressor featuring dynamic vapor injection technology for the North American market. This product launch addressed the increasing regulatory requirements and the industry shift toward low-global warming potential refrigerants in the United States. The compressor was designed to provide flexibility and scalability for distributed refrigeration systems in food retail applications. By eliminating the need for parallel compression in certain configurations, the technology aimed to improve system efficiency and reliability for retailers seeking sustainable cooling solutions for both new installations and facility upgrades.
• In December 2024, Hussmann expanded its sustainable product offerings in the United States by launching a new outdoor condensing unit utilizing carbon dioxide. Engineered specifically for the North American market, this unit was designed to support small to medium-sized retail formats, such as convenience stores and walk-in coolers. The system featured variable speed compressors and advanced controls to exceed federal energy efficiency standards. This product release provided retailers with a versatile solution capable of operating effectively in a wide range of ambient temperatures, facilitating the adoption of natural refrigerants in applications with limited floor space.
• In March 2024, Hillphoenix Industrial entered into a strategic partnership with Cool Refrigeration Systems & Solutions to strengthen its presence in the Eastern United States. This collaboration was established to represent the company's industrial carbon dioxide refrigeration systems across several states, including New York, Pennsylvania, and Florida. The agreement leveraged the partner's technical expertise to deploy natural refrigerant technologies within the cold storage and food processing sectors. This alliance aimed to address the growing market demand for sustainable, regulatory-compliant industrial cooling solutions by combining advanced manufacturing capabilities with specialized regional sales and support.
• In January 2024, ALDI US announced a strategic commitment to transition to natural refrigerants across all its stores in the United States. The grocery retailer set a goal to utilize systems based on carbon dioxide and propane in both new and remodeled locations, aiming to complete this transition by the end of 2035. This initiative expanded upon the company's existing deployment of environmentally friendly refrigerants in over 600 stores. The decision was designed to significantly reduce carbon emissions and operational costs while ensuring compliance with environmental standards, utilizing purchasing strategies tailored to the distinct climates of different U.S. regions.

Key Market Players

• Carrier Global Corporation
• Daikin North America LLC
• Johnson Controls Inc.
• Emerson Electric Co.
• Honeywell International Inc.
• Danfoss A/S
• Bitzer SE
• Mitsubishi Electric Trane HVAC US LLC
• Güntner GmbH & Co. KG
• Airedale International Air Conditioning Ltd

By Type	By Application	By Region
Carbon Dioxide Ammonia Hydrocarbons Others	Industrial Commercial Domestic	Northeast Midwest South West

Report Scope:

In this report, the United States Natural Refrigerants Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:

• United States Natural Refrigerants Market, By Type:

• Carbon Dioxide
• Ammonia
• Hydrocarbons
• Others

• United States Natural Refrigerants Market, By Application:

• Industrial
• Commercial
• Domestic

• United States Natural Refrigerants Market, By Region:

• Northeast
• Midwest
• South
• West