Small Arms Market – Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Type (Pistol, Shotgun, Revolver, Others), By Action (Automatic, Semi Automatic), By End Use Sector (Civil and Commercial, Defense), By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F

Forecast Period	2027-2031
Market Size (2025)	USD 16.08 Billion
CAGR (2026-2031)	5.78%
Fastest Growing Segment	Pistol
Largest Market	North America
Market Size (2031)	USD 22.53 Billion

Market Overview

The Global Small Arms Market will grow from USD 16.08 Billion in 2025 to USD 22.53 Billion by 2031 at a 5.78% CAGR. Small arms are defined as man-portable lethal weapons designed for individual use, specifically encompassing revolvers, self-loading pistols, rifles, carbines, and light machine guns. The market is primarily propelled by the urgent modernization of military inventories and increasing national defense budgets globally, necessitated by heightened geopolitical instability. Furthermore, the industry is bolstered by sustained civilian demand for personal protection and recreational shooting sports. According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, in 2024, the total economic impact of the firearm and ammunition industry in the United States reached $91.7 billion, underscoring the sector's significant financial magnitude and resilience.

However, the global market faces a substantial challenge regarding stringent regulatory frameworks and complex international export controls. Divergent laws governing the transfer and civilian ownership of weaponry across different jurisdictions create significant compliance burdens for manufacturers. These regulatory hurdles often delay procurement processes and restrict market access in key regions, effectively impeding the seamless expansion of the global small arms trade despite robust demand.

Key Market Drivers

The expansion of global defense budgets and military expenditure currently serves as the primary catalyst for the small arms sector, driven by the urgent need to counter asymmetric threats and geopolitical volatility. Nations are prioritizing the replacement of legacy service weapons with modular, lightweight platforms that offer superior ergonomics and lethality, directly translating into substantial contracts for defense contractors. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, April 2025, in the 'Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2024' Fact Sheet, world military expenditure increased by 9.4 percent in real terms to reach $2718 billion, marking a historic high. This fiscal surge facilitates rapid modernization programs, ensuring infantry units are equipped with technologically advanced carbines and machine guns. Highlighting the industrial impact of this procurement wave, According to Rheinmetall AG, in 2025, the company reported that sales in its Weapon and Ammunition division soared to €2.78 billion for the fiscal year 2024, driven by heightened demand from NATO partners.

Concurrently, rising civilian demand for personal protection and self-defense firearms continues to consolidate market growth, particularly within regions permitting private ownership. This segment is characterized by a steady consumption of semi-automatic pistols and modern sporting rifles, fueled by heightened safety concerns and the sustained popularity of recreational shooting. Manufacturers maintain robust production lines to satisfy this consistent commercial appetite, which often acts as a financial stabilizer against cyclical fluctuations in government procurement. According to Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc., December 2024, in the 'Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Financial Results', the company achieved net sales of $129.7 million for the quarter, reflecting the enduring resilience of the consumer firearm market. Consequently, the interplay between sovereign defense requirements and commercial market dynamics ensures a diversified revenue base for global small arms stakeholders.

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Key Market Challenges

Stringent regulatory frameworks and complex international export controls act as a substantial barrier to the progress of the global small arms market. Manufacturers struggle with a difficult network of divergent national laws and international treaties that govern the sale of weaponry. This regulatory fragmentation requires companies to allocate significant resources to legal compliance and administrative tasks rather than market expansion efforts. The uncertain nature of export licensing processes frequently leads to indefinite delays or sudden contract denials, which damages the reliability of supply chains and discourages international buyers who need timely procurement for national defense.

The financial impact of these obstacles is severe and directly lowers market revenue. Manufacturers lose access to established markets when export licenses are restricted or revoked due to changing geopolitical policies. According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, in 2025, the industry faced an estimated $500 million in annual lost business attributed specifically to restrictive export control policies. These substantial financial losses demonstrate how regulatory instability disrupts sales and limits the capital needed for future industry growth.

Key Market Trends

The transition to 6.8mm Next Generation Squad Weapons represents a fundamental shift in small arms ballistics, designed to overcome the limitations of legacy 5.56mm platforms against modern body armor. Military forces are prioritizing the deployment of modular weapons chambered in this intermediate caliber to achieve superior terminal effects and extended effective ranges in near-peer conflicts. This ballistic shift necessitates substantial industrial tooling upgrades to support the mass production of high-pressure, hybrid-case ammunition required for these new platforms. According to Olin Corporation, February 2025, in the 'Winchester Ammunition Breaks Ground on New 6.8mm Ammunition Facility' press release, the company commenced construction of a dedicated 450,000-square-foot manufacturing center to meet the U.S. Army’s requirements for the new 6.8mm cartridge.

Concurrently, the integration of AI-powered fire control systems is redefining infantry precision by automating target acquisition and engagement calculations. These intelligent optics utilize advanced computer vision and ballistic algorithms to identify threats, such as moving drones or concealed combatants, and allow the weapon to fire only when a hit is guaranteed. This technology drastically improves first-round hit probabilities and reduces ammunition expenditure under high-stress operational conditions. According to Defence Industry Europe, May 2025, in the article 'SmartShooter secures $13 million U.S. Army contract for advanced fire control systems', the manufacturer received a significant order to equip infantry units with the SMASH 2000L system, validating the operational demand for algorithmic sighting solutions in modern combat.

Segmental Insights

The pistol segment has emerged as the fastest-growing category within the global small arms market, driven significantly by rising civilian demand for self-defense and concealed carry options. This expansion is further supported by widespread procurement initiatives from law enforcement agencies upgrading their standard service weapons to semi-automatic models. Reports from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives highlight a substantial increase in handgun manufacturing and importation, reflecting this sustained preference. Consequently, the versatility and compact nature of pistols continue to fuel their adoption for both personal security and official tactical applications.

Regional Insights

North America dominates the global small arms industry due to extensive military investments and a large civilian consumer base. The United States Department of Defense drives market growth through regular modernization initiatives and substantial procurement contracts intended to equip armed forces. Furthermore, the region benefits from established legislative support for private ownership, which sustains high demand for personal security and recreational firearms. The presence of key manufacturers within the region further streamlines supply chains for law enforcement and government agencies, ensuring North America remains the principal revenue generator in this sector.

Recent Developments

• In November 2024, Sako Limited secured a substantial contract from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration to supply an additional 22,500 AK 24 assault rifles to the Swedish Armed Forces. This order was executed under a ten-year framework agreement designed to foster joint procurement and enhance compatibility between the Finnish and Swedish militaries. The contract stipulated that deliveries of the 5.56mm carbines, which are designed to replace older service weapons with a more ergonomic and modular platform, would commence swiftly. This development reinforced the company's pivotal role in modernizing individual weaponry for Nordic defence organizations.
• In September 2024, Thales Australia entered into a strategic collaboration with the Danish firm Våbenfabrikken to establish a sovereign small arms manufacturing capability in Denmark. Through a signed Memorandum of Understanding, the two entities agreed to work towards the local production of NATO-interoperable weaponry, beginning with a Danish variant of the Australian Combat Assault Rifle. This partnership marked a significant industrial milestone, aiming to reintroduce military assault rifle production to Denmark for the first time in decades while securing supply chains and enhancing the interoperability of defence forces across the region.
• In May 2024, FN Herstal introduced a new configuration of its widely used FN Minimi Mk3 light machine gun to address the changing operational needs of modern infantry. Unveiled prior to the Eurosatory defense exhibition, this latest variant featured a redesigned feed cover with an integrated, rigid top rail containing 23 notches. This modification was engineered to allow the inline mounting of multiple optical sights, such as day scopes combined with magnifiers or night vision attachments, thereby enhancing targeting precision. The launch highlighted the company's focus on ergonomic adaptability and improving the combat effectiveness of standard-issue squad support weapons.
• In January 2024, Colt CZ Group significantly expanded its portfolio in the Global Small Arms Market by acquiring the ownership rights to the Mk 47 Striker 40mm Advanced Lightweight Grenade Launcher from General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems. This strategic transfer included the entire production capability and supply chain for the weapon system. By integrating this advanced automatic grenade launcher into its existing offerings, the company aimed to strengthen its position in the military segment and provide comprehensive fire support solutions to armed forces worldwide. The acquisition underscored the group's commitment to consolidating high-performance assets to meet evolving modern warfare requirements.

Key Market Players

• Vista Outdoor Inc
• SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC
• Sig Sauer, Inc
• HECKLER & KOCH GmbH
• Kalashnikov Concern JSC
• Colt’s Manufacturing Company LLC
• FN Herstal, S.A.
• Walther Arms, Inc.
• SPRINGFIELD, INC
• O. F. Mossberg & Sons, Inc

By Type	By Action	By End Use Sector	By Region
Pistol Shotgun Revolver Others	Automatic Semi Automatic	Civil and Commercial Defense	North America Europe Asia Pacific South America Middle East & Africa

Report Scope:

In this report, the Global Small Arms Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:

• Small Arms Market, By Type:

• Pistol
• Shotgun
• Revolver
• Others

• Small Arms Market, By Action:

• Automatic
• Semi Automatic

• Small Arms Market, By End Use Sector:

• Civil and Commercial
• Defense

• Small Arms Market, By Region:

• North America
• United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• Europe
• France
• United Kingdom
• Italy
• Germany
• Spain
• Asia Pacific
• China
• India
• Japan
• Australia
• South Korea
• South America
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Colombia
• Middle East & Africa
• South Africa
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE