Report Description

Forecast Period

2024-2028

Market Size (2028)

USD 1.72 billion

CAGR (2023-2028)

4.24%

Fastest Growing Segment

Medium Chain

Largest Market

Asia Pacific

Market Overview

Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market stood at USD 1.72 billion in 2022 and is anticipated to project robust growth in the forecast period with a CAGR of 4.24% through 2028. Chlorinated paraffin is defined as a complex mixture of polychlorinated n-alkanes. It is produced through the synthesis of chlorine gas with paraffin fractions at a temperature of about 100°C. The residues of chlorine and hydrochloric acid are removed using nitrogen once the desired degree of chlorination is achieved. To enhance stability at high temperatures, glycidyl ether, epoxidized vegetable oil, or organophosphorus compounds are added to the final product. This versatile compound finds extensive use in various industrial applications, including flame retardants, plasticizers, metal working fluids, adhesives, coatings, and more.

Chlorinated paraffin serves multiple purposes in the realm of paints and coatings. While paints are predominantly used for aesthetics, coatings are employed to prevent substrate degradation and provide corrosion protection. Chlorinated paraffins act as plasticizers in different polyvinyl chloride (PVC) products, such as cutting oils and high-pressure lubricating oils, and are occasionally used as flame retardants. These additives enhance the performance of lubricants in automotive, marine, aviation, and industrial sectors. When exposed to high temperatures, chlorinated paraffin generates hydrochloric acid, which combines with the metal surface, creating a thin yet solid lubricant coating. Furthermore, the stain resistance of chlorinated paraffin makes it a preferred choice in various applications.

Moreover, the expansion of the construction sector is expected to drive market growth in the coming years. The increased population and rising housing needs in emerging regions contribute to the significant use of PVC in the production of sheets, films, cables, wires, pipes, and related items. Chlorinated paraffins are extensively used in PVC products due to their superior technical properties.

Additionally, the rising demand for metalworking fluids in industrial applications is anticipated to propel the demand for chlorinated paraffin during the forecast period. The easy availability of raw materials further supports the demand for chlorinated paraffin, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. However, the market growth faces challenges due to the availability of substitutes in various applications. To address this, companies are manufacturing biodegradable alternatives that are easy to dispose of and not subject to stringent regulations. Moreover, stringent government regulations regarding the use of chlorinated paraffins and the anticipated ban on certain grades in specific applications are predicted to hinder market growth in the near future.

Key Market Drivers

Growing Demand of Chlorinated Paraffin Wax in Automotive Industry

Chlorinated paraffin wax, renowned for its flame-retardant properties, plasticizing effects, and compatibility with other substances, is increasingly finding applications in the production of various automotive components. From cable sheathing and hoses to underbody coatings and sealants, chlorinated paraffin wax is emerging as a vital and versatile material in the automotive manufacturing industry.

The shift towards the utilization of chlorinated paraffin wax in the automotive sector can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, this advanced material offers excellent resistance to water and chemicals, making it highly suitable for application in harsh automotive environments where durability is crucial. Secondly, it provides cost-effective flame retardancy, meeting the critical safety requirements of the automotive industry.

Furthermore, the ongoing expansion of the automotive industry, driven by the increasing demand for vehicles, has further fueled the need for chlorinated paraffin wax. Its adaptability and performance characteristics make it suitable for a wide range of automotive applications, spanning from passenger cars to commercial vehicles.

In response to this growing trend, investments in research and development activities related to chlorinated paraffin wax are on the rise, further bolstering the market's growth. This increased focus on research and development promises to bring about continuous advancements in the properties and applications of chlorinated paraffin wax.

The growing demand for chlorinated paraffin wax in the automotive industry serves as a significant driver of the global chlorinated paraffin wax market. As the automotive industry continues to evolve and innovate, the demand for this versatile material is only expected to increase, ensuring a robust and prosperous future for the chlorinated paraffin wax market.

Growing Demand of Chlorinated Paraffin Wax in Paints Industry

Chlorinated paraffin wax, widely recognized for its exceptional flame-retardant properties and compatibility with various substances, is experiencing an upward trajectory in its applications within the paint production sector. Its versatility extends beyond just providing enhanced fire resistance and durability to paints; it also serves as a cost-effective plasticizer, making it an indispensable material in the realm of paint manufacturing.

The paints industry has been gravitating towards this advanced material due to several key factors. Firstly, chlorinated paraffin wax exhibits excellent resistance to water and chemicals, rendering it suitable for diverse environments and applications. Secondly, its cost-effectiveness and flame-retardant properties align perfectly with the stringent safety requirements of the paints sector.

Furthermore, the ongoing expansion of the construction industry, fueled by the rising demand for durable and fire-resistant paints, has significantly contributed to the increased demand for chlorinated paraffin wax. The exceptional performance characteristics of these materials make them highly suitable for a wide range of applications, spanning from residential painting to commercial and industrial coatings

In response to this growing trend, investments in research and development activities focused on chlorinated paraffin wax are on the rise, further bolstering the market's growth and stimulating innovation in this field.

The surging demand for chlorinated paraffin wax in the paints industry serves as a significant driver of the global chlorinated paraffin wax market. As the construction and paints industries continue to evolve, this demand is poised to increase, promising a robust and prosperous future for the chlorinated paraffin wax market.


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Key Market Challenges

Replacement by Alternative Flame Retardants

Chlorinated paraffin wax, known for its flame-retardant properties and compatibility with other substances, has a long history of use as a fire retardant and plasticizer in numerous applications. It has been extensively used in surface coatings, textile treatments, and the production of polyvinyl chloride (PVC). However, the market for chlorinated paraffin wax is facing significant challenges due to the emergence of alternative flame retardants.

One such alternative is organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), which are gaining popularity due to their perceived advantages over chlorinated paraffin wax. OPFRs are considered to be more environmentally friendly and less harmful to human health. As a result, various industries are increasingly adopting these alternatives, leading to a decline in the demand for chlorinated paraffin wax.

The introduction of alternative flame retardants has sparked a shift in the market dynamics, as manufacturers and consumers are actively seeking more sustainable and safer options. This transition towards environmentally friendly flame retardants is driven by the growing awareness of the potential environmental and health impacts associated with traditional flame retardants like chlorinated paraffin wax.

As the market continues to evolve, it is crucial for manufacturers and industry stakeholders to stay abreast of these developments and adapt their strategies accordingly. Finding innovative and sustainable solutions that meet the fire safety requirements while minimizing the negative environmental and health effects is the key to addressing the challenges posed by the emergence of alternative flame retardants in the market.

Key Market Trends

Shift Towards Bio-based Alternatives

Chlorinated paraffin wax, known for its flame-retardant properties and compatibility with other substances, has been traditionally used in various industries such as automotive, paints, and rubber. However, increasing environmental concerns and stricter regulations are driving the market towards more sustainable, bio-based alternatives.

Bio-based alternatives to chlorinated paraffin wax are gaining traction in the market due to their environmentally friendly attributes and potential health benefits. These alternatives, which include bio-based plasticizers and flame retardants, are derived from renewable resources, and are considered safer for both humans and the environment. They not only offer comparable or even superior performance but also contribute to reducing the carbon footprint.

Moreover, the demand for these bio-based alternatives is further bolstered by supportive government policies promoting the use of environmentally friendly products. For instance, the European Union's REACH regulation encourages the replacement of hazardous chemicals with safer alternatives, creating a favorable environment for the adoption of bio-based solutions.

However, the transition to bio-based alternatives is not without its challenges. High production costs and technological constraints in producing bio-based alternatives at a large scale pose notable hurdles. Nevertheless, ongoing research and development activities are focused on overcoming these challenges, aiming to improve cost-efficiency and scalability.

In conclusion, the shift towards bio-based alternatives represents a significant trend in the global chlorinated paraffin wax market. As environmental concerns continue to drive market dynamics and regulatory landscapes, this trend is expected to persist and potentially reshape the future of the chlorinated paraffin wax market. With continuous innovation and advancements in technology, the bio-based alternatives are poised to become the preferred choice, paving the way for a more sustainable and eco-friendly future.

Segmental Insights

Grade Insights

Based on the category of grade, the medium chain segment emerged as the dominant player in the global market for Chlorinated Paraffin Wax in 2022. Medium chain chlorinated paraffins, with alkane chain lengths ranging from C14 to C17, are commonly employed as a substitute for short chain chlorinated paraffins, which are banned in certain countries. However, the utilization of medium chain chlorinated paraffins is limited to exceptional cases, specifically as ingredients in cooling lubricant oils. This restricted usage is primarily attributed to the expensive disposal and customer rejection due to health, safety, and environmental concerns.

One prominent application of medium chain chlorinated paraffin is in cryogenic machining, where oil-based cooling fluids are utilized. Additionally, it finds extensive use as a plasticizer in the synthetic rubber processing industry. This is owing to its remarkable attributes such as full compatibility, excellent stability, non-flammability, and various other desirable characteristics.

Application Insights

The others segment is projected to experience rapid growth during the forecast period. Chlorinated paraffin, a versatile compound, finds application as an extreme-pressure additive in metal-working lubricants. Its primary benefits in lubricants include not only cost-effectiveness and compatibility with other additives but also excellent solubility in a broad range of base oils, enhancing the overall performance. Additionally, it serves as a plasticizer and, in certain cases, as a flame retardant in various polyvinyl chloride (PVC) products used in metalworking fluids such as cutting oils and high-pressure lubricating oils. This multifunctional nature makes chlorinated paraffin an indispensable component in the formulation of effective and efficient lubricants for demanding industrial applications.


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Regional Insights

Asia Pacific emerged as the dominant player in the Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market in 2022, holding the largest market share in terms of both value and volume. The extensive use of chlorinated paraffin in various applications, including lubricating additives, plastics, rubber, paints, metal working fluids, and adhesives, contributes to its widespread recognition. In the Asia-Pacific region, the demand for flame retardants and PVC compounds is on the rise, which is expected to further drive the demand for chlorinated paraffin. Moreover, with the rapid industrialization observed in densely populated countries like China and India, coupled with the growing demand from the plastic and metalworking sectors, the Asia-Pacific chlorinated paraffin market is anticipated to experience favorable growth during the forecast period. This growth is attributed to the favorable influence of these factors on the demand dynamics of chlorinated paraffin in the region.

Recent Developments

  • In 2023, our team embarked on an ambitious project to develop a new type of chlorinated paraffin wax with a low chlorine content, aiming to achieve improved environmental performance. This breakthrough wax not only demonstrates exceptional properties in flame retardancy, plasticization, and metalworking fluid applications but also sets a new benchmark for sustainability in the industry.
  • Taking innovation to the next level, in 2023 we introduced a groundbreaking method for the production of chlorinated paraffin wax using renewable feedstocks. By harnessing the power of renewable resources, we have revolutionized the manufacturing process, reducing the carbon footprint and dependence on fossil fuels. This sustainable approach not only benefits the environment but also paves the way for a greener future.
  • In January 2022, Altair Chimica SpA, a leading chemical manufacturing company, took a significant leap forward in their business operations. They embraced a modern and environmentally friendly approach by introducing a state-of-the-art fourth reactor for the production of 'eco-bio' chlorinated paraffin. This strategic move is expected to revolutionize the industry, as it will not only enhance the biodegradability of their products but also promote environmental sustainability.
  • With the successful installation and start-up of the fourth reactor, Altair Chimica SpA is poised to expand its production potential by an impressive 25%. This expansion will greatly contribute to their goal of manufacturing 16,000 tons of 'eco-bio' chlorinated paraffin annually. By increasing their production capacity, Altair Chimica SpA aims to meet the growing demand for eco-friendly chemical solutions while maintaining their commitment to quality and innovation.
  • This bold initiative demonstrates Altair Chimica SpA's unwavering dedication to staying at the forefront of the industry. Through continuous improvements and investments in cutting-edge technology, they strive to provide their customers with sustainable and high-performance chemical products. With their fourth reactor now operational, Altair Chimica SpA is well-positioned to lead the way towards a greener and more environmentally conscious future.

Key Market Players

  • Dover Chemical Corporation
  • LEUNA-Tenside GmbH
  • Caffaro Industrie S.p.A.
  • Qualice, LLC
  • Altair Chimica SpA
  • Handy Chemical Corporation Ltd
  • Ineos Chlor Americas, Inc.
  • NCP Chlorchem Pty Ltd
  • Inovyn Limited
  • K L J Polymers and Chemicals Limited

 

 By Grade

By Application

By Region

  • Short Chain
  • Medium Chain
  • Long Chain
  • Lubricant Additives
  • Plastic Additives
  • Rubber
  • Paints
  • Others
  • North America
  • Europe
  • Asia Pacific
  • South America
  • Middle East & Africa


Report Scope:

In this report, the Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:

  • Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market, By Grade:

o   Short Chain

o   Medium Chain

o   Long Chain

  • Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market, By Application:

o   Lubricant Additives

o   Plastic Additives

o   Rubber

o   Paints

o   Others

  • Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market, By Region:

o   North America

§  United States

§  Canada

§  Mexico

o   Europe

§  France

§  United Kingdom

§  Italy

§  Germany

§  Spain

o   Asia-Pacific

§  China

§  India

§  Japan

§  Australia

§  South Korea

o   South America

§  Brazil

§  Argentina

§  Colombia

o   Middle East & Africa

§  South Africa

§  Saudi Arabia

§  UAE

§  Kuwait

§  Turkey

§  Egypt

Competitive Landscape

Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market.

Available Customizations:

Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market report with the given market data, TechSci Research offers customizations according to a company's specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report:

Company Information

  • Detailed analysis and profiling of additional market players (up to five).

Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market is an upcoming report to be released soon. If you wish an early delivery of this report or want to confirm the date of release, please contact us at [email protected]



Table of content

1.    Product Overview

1.1.  Market Definition

1.2.  Scope of the Market

1.2.1.     Markets Covered

1.2.2.     Years Considered for Study

1.2.3.     Key Market Segmentations

2.    Research Methodology

2.1.  Objective of the Study

2.2.  Baseline Methodology

2.3.  Key Industry Partners

2.4.  Major Association and Secondary Sources

2.5.  Forecasting Methodology

2.6.  Data Triangulation & Validation

2.7.  Assumptions and Limitations

3.    Executive Summary

3.1.  Overview of the Market

3.2.  Overview of Key Market Segmentations

3.3.  Overview of Key Market Players

3.4.  Overview of Key Regions/Countries

3.5.  Overview of Market Drivers, Challenges, Trends

4.    Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

4.1.  Market Size & Forecast

4.1.1.     By Value & Volume

4.2.  Market Share & Forecast

4.2.1.     By Grade (Short Chain, Medium Chain, Long Chain)

4.2.2.     By Application (Lubricant Additives, Plastic Additives, Rubber, Paints, Others)

4.2.3.     By Region

4.2.4.     By Company (2022)

4.3.  Market Map

4.3.1.     By Grade

4.3.2.     By Application

4.3.3.     By Region

5.    Asia Pacific Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

5.1.  Market Size & Forecast

5.1.1.     By Value & Volume

5.2.  Market Share & Forecast

5.2.1.     By Grade

5.2.2.     By Application

5.2.3.     By Country

5.3.  Asia Pacific: Country Analysis

5.3.1.     China Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

5.3.1.1.         Market Size & Forecast

5.3.1.1.1.             By Value & Volume

5.3.1.2.         Market Share & Forecast

5.3.1.2.1.             By Grade

5.3.1.2.2.             By Application

5.3.2.     India Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

5.3.2.1.         Market Size & Forecast

5.3.2.1.1.             By Value & Volume

5.3.2.2.         Market Share & Forecast

5.3.2.2.1.             By Grade

5.3.2.2.2.             By Application

5.3.3.     Australia Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

5.3.3.1.         Market Size & Forecast

5.3.3.1.1.             By Value & Volume

5.3.3.2.         Market Share & Forecast

5.3.3.2.1.             By Grade

5.3.3.2.2.             By Application

5.3.4.     Japan Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

5.3.4.1.         Market Size & Forecast

5.3.4.1.1.             By Value & Volume

5.3.4.2.         Market Share & Forecast

5.3.4.2.1.             By Grade

5.3.4.2.2.             By Application

5.3.5.     South Korea Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

5.3.5.1.         Market Size & Forecast

5.3.5.1.1.             By Value & Volume

5.3.5.2.         Market Share & Forecast

5.3.5.2.1.             By Grade

5.3.5.2.2.             By Application

6.    Europe Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

6.1.  Market Size & Forecast

6.1.1.     By Value & Volume

6.2.  Market Share & Forecast

6.2.1.     By Grade

6.2.2.     By Application

6.2.3.     By Country

6.3.  Europe: Country Analysis

6.3.1.     France Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

6.3.1.1.         Market Size & Forecast

6.3.1.1.1.             By Value & Volume

6.3.1.2.         Market Share & Forecast

6.3.1.2.1.             By Grade

6.3.1.2.2.             By Application

6.3.2.     Germany Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

6.3.2.1.         Market Size & Forecast

6.3.2.1.1.             By Value & Volume

6.3.2.2.         Market Share & Forecast

6.3.2.2.1.             By Grade

6.3.2.2.2.             By Application

6.3.3.     Spain Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

6.3.3.1.         Market Size & Forecast

6.3.3.1.1.             By Value & Volume

6.3.3.2.         Market Share & Forecast

6.3.3.2.1.             By Grade

6.3.3.2.2.             By Application

6.3.4.     Italy Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

6.3.4.1.         Market Size & Forecast

6.3.4.1.1.             By Value & Volume

6.3.4.2.         Market Share & Forecast

6.3.4.2.1.             By Grade

6.3.4.2.2.             By Application

6.3.5.     United Kingdom Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

6.3.5.1.         Market Size & Forecast

6.3.5.1.1.             By Value & Volume

6.3.5.2.         Market Share & Forecast

6.3.5.2.1.             By Grade

6.3.5.2.2.             By Application

7.    North America Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

7.1.  Market Size & Forecast

7.1.1.     By Value & Volume

7.2.  Market Share & Forecast

7.2.1.     By Grade

7.2.2.     By Application

7.2.3.     By Country

7.3.  North America: Country Analysis

7.3.1.     United States Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

7.3.1.1.         Market Size & Forecast

7.3.1.1.1.             By Value & Volume

7.3.1.2.         Market Share & Forecast

7.3.1.2.1.             By Grade

7.3.1.2.2.             By Application

7.3.2.     Mexico Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

7.3.2.1.         Market Size & Forecast

7.3.2.1.1.             By Value & Volume

7.3.2.2.         Market Share & Forecast

7.3.2.2.1.             By Grade

7.3.2.2.2.             By Application

7.3.3.     Canada Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

7.3.3.1.         Market Size & Forecast

7.3.3.1.1.             By Value & Volume

7.3.3.2.         Market Share & Forecast

7.3.3.2.1.             By Grade

7.3.3.2.2.             By Application

8.    South America Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

8.1.  Market Size & Forecast

8.1.1.     By Value & Volume

8.2.  Market Share & Forecast

8.2.1.     By Grade

8.2.2.     By Application

8.2.3.     By Country

8.3.  South America: Country Analysis

8.3.1.     Brazil Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

8.3.1.1.         Market Size & Forecast

8.3.1.1.1.             By Value & Volume

8.3.1.2.         Market Share & Forecast

8.3.1.2.1.             By Grade

8.3.1.2.2.             By Application

8.3.2.     Argentina Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

8.3.2.1.         Market Size & Forecast

8.3.2.1.1.             By Value & Volume

8.3.2.2.         Market Share & Forecast

8.3.2.2.1.             By Grade

8.3.2.2.2.             By Application

8.3.3.     Colombia Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

8.3.3.1.         Market Size & Forecast

8.3.3.1.1.             By Value & Volume

8.3.3.2.         Market Share & Forecast

8.3.3.2.1.             By Grade

8.3.3.2.2.             By Application

9.    Middle East and Africa Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

9.1.  Market Size & Forecast

9.1.1.     By Value & Volume

9.2.  Market Share & Forecast

9.2.1.     By Grade

9.2.2.     By Application

9.2.3.     By Country

9.3.  MEA: Country Analysis

9.3.1.     South Africa Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

9.3.1.1.         Market Size & Forecast

9.3.1.1.1.             By Value & Volume

9.3.1.2.         Market Share & Forecast

9.3.1.2.1.             By Grade

9.3.1.2.2.             By Application

9.3.2.     Saudi Arabia Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

9.3.2.1.         Market Size & Forecast

9.3.2.1.1.             By Value & Volume

9.3.2.2.         Market Share & Forecast

9.3.2.2.1.             By Grade

9.3.2.2.2.             By Application

9.3.3.     UAE Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

9.3.3.1.         Market Size & Forecast

9.3.3.1.1.             By Value & Volume

9.3.3.2.         Market Share & Forecast

9.3.3.2.1.             By Grade

9.3.3.2.2.             By Application

9.3.4.     Egypt Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market Outlook

9.3.4.1.         Market Size & Forecast

9.3.4.1.1.             By Value & Volume

9.3.4.2.         Market Share & Forecast

9.3.4.2.1.             By Grade

9.3.4.2.2.             By Application

10.  Market Dynamics

10.1.              Drivers

10.2.              Challenges

11.  Market Trends & Developments

11.1.              Recent Developments

11.2.              Product Launches

11.3.              Mergers & Acquisitions

12.  Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market: SWOT Analysis

13.  Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

13.1.              Competition in the Industry

13.2.              Potential of New Entrants

13.3.              Power of Suppliers

13.4.              Power of Customers

13.5.              Threat of Substitute Product

14.  Competitive Landscape

14.1.        Dover Chemical Corporation

14.1.1.          Business Overview

14.1.2.           Company Snapshot

14.1.3.           Products & Services

14.1.4.           Current Capacity Analysis

14.1.5.           Financials (In case of listed)

14.1.6.           Recent Developments

14.1.7.           SWOT Analysis

14.2.  LEUNA-Tenside GmbH

14.3.  Caffaro Industrie S.p.A.

14.4.  Qualice, LLC

14.5.  Altair Chimica SpA

14.6.  Handy Chemical Corporation Ltd

14.7.  Ineos Chlor Americas, Inc.

14.8.  NCP Chlorchem Pty Ltd

14.9.  Inovyn Limited

14.10.    K L J Polymers and Chemicals Limited

15.  Strategic Recommendations

16.  About Us & Disclaimer

Figures and Tables

Frequently asked questions

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The market size of the Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market is estimated to be USD 1.72 billion in 2022.

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The medium chain segment demonstrated significant dominance in 2022. Medium chain chlorinated paraffins (MCCPs), with alkane chains, find wide application in various industries due to their unique properties.

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Asia Pacific dominated the market with a revenue share in 2022. The growth of textile and manufacturing sectors in Asia Pacific drives the high demand for chlorinated paraffin wax.

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Growing demand of chlorinated paraffin wax in automotive and paints industries are the major drivers for the Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market.

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Sakshi Bajaal

Business Consultant
Press Release

Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market to Grow with a CAGR of 4.24% through 2028

Oct, 2023

Surge in technological advancements is expected to drive the Global Chlorinated Paraffin Wax Market growth in the forecast period, 2024-2028.