Ballistic Missile Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Launch Mode (Surface-to-Surface, Surface-to-Air, Air-to-Surface, Air-to-Air, Subsea-to-Air), By Range (Short-Range, Medium-Range, Intermediate-Range, Intercontinental), and By Region 2021-2031F

Forecast Period	2027-2031
Market Size (2025)	USD 7.21 Billion
CAGR (2026-2031)	4.22%
Fastest Growing Segment	Surface-to-Surface
Largest Market	North America
Market Size (2031)	USD 9.24 Billion

Market Overview

The Global Ballistic Missile Market will grow from USD 7.21 Billion in 2025 to USD 9.24 Billion by 2031 at a 4.22% CAGR. A ballistic missile is a strategic weapon system propelled by rockets that follows a suborbital trajectory to deliver conventional or nuclear payloads to a predetermined target. The global market is primarily propelled by escalating geopolitical tensions and the urgent requirement for nations to modernize their defense architectures with rapid and long range strike capabilities. This growth is further supported by the integration of advanced guidance technologies and the development of hypersonic delivery systems which enhance interception evasion. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in 2024, global defense spending reached 2.46 trillion dollars, indicating a substantial allocation of resources toward bolstering national security and strategic arsenals.

However, the market faces a significant impediment arising from stringent international regulatory frameworks and nonproliferation treaties. These legal mechanisms rigorously control the export and transfer of sensitive missile technologies and components between nations. Such restrictions limit the ability of manufacturers to penetrate new regional markets and create considerable barriers to international industrial collaboration, thereby slowing the overall expansion of the global inventory.

Key Market Drivers

Escalating geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts constitute the primary catalyst propelling the global ballistic missile market. As security environments deteriorate, nations are prioritizing the expansion of nuclear deterrence capabilities to ensure strategic sovereignty. This geopolitical instability drives an immediate increase in funding for the development and procurement of intercontinental and submarine-launched platforms capable of penetrating disputed airspaces. The financial commitment to these strategic assets is immense and growing. According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, June 2024, in the 'Surge: 2023 Global Nuclear Weapons Spending' report, the nine nuclear-armed states collectively invested 91.4 billion dollars in their arsenals, directly fueling the industrial base responsible for missile production and maintenance.

The modernization of aging strategic missile arsenals serves as the second critical driver, compelling governments to replace legacy systems with advanced technologies. This replacement cycle focuses on integrating next-generation propulsion and precision guidance systems to mitigate technical obsolescence and enhance reliability. Large-scale engineering programs are essential to this transition, requiring sustained multi-year investments. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, March 2024, in the 'Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Request', the Air Force allocated 3.7 billion dollars specifically for the continued engineering and manufacturing development of the LGM-35A Sentinel program. This drive for updated capabilities is mirrored globally; according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, in 2024, China’s stockpile increased to 500 warheads, reflecting the broader market trend of inventory expansion and technological updating.

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Key Market Challenges

Stringent international regulatory frameworks and nonproliferation treaties constitute a formidable barrier to the commercial expansion of the Global Ballistic Missile Market. These legal mechanisms impose rigorous export controls on sensitive missile technologies, propulsion systems, and guidance components to prevent the proliferation of strategic weapons. Manufacturers encounter extensive compliance requirements and protracted approval processes, which effectively block entry into emerging regional markets. Defense contractors are often restricted to selling within a narrow circle of pre-approved allies, preventing the formation of new international partnerships and limiting revenue opportunities.

This regulatory environment directly stifles the volume of cross-border trade, decoupling market potential from actual delivery capabilities. Despite heightened geopolitical tensions driving demand, the inability to freely transfer strategic assets slows industrial expansion. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, in March 2025, the global volume of international transfers of major arms decreased by 0.6 percent between 2015–19 and 2020–24. This contraction underscores how export limitations and compliance hurdles impede the broader distribution of missile systems, hampering the market's overall trajectory.

Key Market Trends

The integration of Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) payloads is fundamentally reshaping the market by prioritizing maneuverability over simple ballistic speed to penetrate advanced interception networks. Unlike traditional warheads that follow predictable parabolic arcs, HGVs detach from boosters to glide at lower altitudes, executing erratic course changes that render existing radar tracking and kinetic kill vehicles ineffective. This technological leap is driving rapid industrial mobilization to field operational units. According to Defense News, April 2025, in the 'US Army aiming for next hypersonic missile test in December' article, the U.S. Army confirmed it would field its first ground-launched hypersonic missile unit by the end of fiscal year 2025, marking a critical transition from developmental testing to combat-ready deployment.

Simultaneously, the market is witnessing a decisive transition toward solid-fuel propulsion systems to enhance rapid readiness and survivability. Liquid-fueled missiles require time-consuming fueling procedures immediately prior to launch, exposing them to preemptive strikes, whereas solid-fuel variants are pre-packaged and capable of near-instantaneous firing from mobile platforms. This shift is particularly evident among nations seeking to secure their second-strike capabilities against preemptive neutralization. According to The Runway, October 2025, in the 'North Korea conducts its final ground test of a solid-fuel engine for long-range missiles' article, the nation successfully completed the final ground test of a high-thrust solid-fuel engine for its intercontinental ballistic missile program, validating the operational reliability of this propulsion architecture.

Segmental Insights

The Surface-to-Surface segment is currently identified as the fastest growing category within the Global Ballistic Missile Market. This accelerated expansion is primarily driven by the strategic modernization of nuclear and conventional arsenals by major defense powers. Nations are heavily investing in long-range precision capabilities to establish credible deterrence amidst escalating cross-border tensions. Furthermore, the integration of advanced guidance systems and the increased deployment of mobile transporter-erector-launchers have enhanced the survivability and operational effectiveness of these assets, thereby stimulating substantial procurement activity across key regions.

Regional Insights

North America holds a dominant position in the global ballistic missile market, driven primarily by significant defense expenditures in the United States. The United States Department of Defense actively funds the modernization of strategic assets, including the nuclear triad and defensive systems, which supports consistent manufacturing activity. Additionally, the region benefits from a concentrated base of established aerospace contractors focused on advancing guidance and propulsion capabilities. This sustained government investment in national security infrastructure ensures North America remains the central region for market expansion and development.

Recent Developments

• In November 2025, General Dynamics Electric Boat received a substantial contract modification worth $2.28 billion from the U.S. Navy to fund the advanced procurement and construction of the next block of Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines. This award specifically covers long-lead materials and initial construction activities for five hulls, ensuring the continuity of the strategic program designed to replace the aging Ohio-class fleet. The contract supports the shipyard's workload through 2031 and underscores the priority placed on the sea-based leg of the nuclear triad. The company is executing this work at its manufacturing facilities, aiming to deliver the largest and most advanced submarines ever built for the Navy.
• In October 2025, Boeing announced that it had been awarded multiyear contracts totaling approximately $2.7 billion to manufacture seekers for the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile defense system. Under these agreements, the company committed to producing over 3,000 seekers through the year 2030 to meet surging global demand for air and missile defense capabilities. The seekers, which are critical for the missile's ability to detect, track, and engage high-speed ballistic and cruise missile threats, will be produced at an expanded rate, with the company aiming to deliver record numbers annually. This production ramp-up involves significant internal investment in facility modernization and supplier network strengthening.
• In October 2024, Lockheed Martin Space secured a contract valued at $2.1 billion from the Department of Defense to continue the production and support of Trident II D5 missiles. This agreement primarily covered the manufacturing of missile motors and other key components to sustain the fleet of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The contract also included provisions for the development of the new W93 and Mk7 nuclear warheads, ensuring the continued reliability of the strategic weapon system. The work, which supports both the United States and the United Kingdom, is scheduled for completion by September 2029 and reinforces the company's role in maintaining the effectiveness of sea-based strategic deterrence.
• In February 2024, Northrop Grumman Corporation successfully completed a series of crucial tests for the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, marking a significant advancement in the engineering, manufacturing, and development phase. The company conducted a shroud fly-off test at a naval facility to verify that the protective shroud would not impact the enclosed payload during flight, a critical requirement for mission success. Additionally, rigorous missile modal evaluations were performed at the company's testing complex in Utah to assess the missile's structural dynamics. These tests provided essential data to mature the design and lower risks for the Sentinel program, which aims to modernize the ground-based leg of the strategic nuclear triad.

Key Market Players

• Lockheed Martin Corporation
• Northrop Grumman Corporation
• The Boeing Company
• Raytheon Technologies Corporation
• General Dynamics Corporation
• BAE Systems plc
• Airbus Defence and Space
• L3Harris Technologies, Inc.
• Thales Group
• Leonardo S.p.A.
• Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd.

By Launch Mode	By Range	By Region
Surface-to-Surface Surface-to-Air Air-to-Surface Air-to-Air Subsea-to-Air	Short-Range Medium-Range Intermediate-Range Intercontinental	North America Europe Asia Pacific South America Middle East & Africa

Report Scope:

In this report, the Global Ballistic Missile Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:

• Ballistic Missile Market, By Launch Mode:

• Surface-to-Surface
• Surface-to-Air
• Air-to-Surface
• Air-to-Air
• Subsea-to-Air

• Ballistic Missile Market, By Range:

• Short-Range
• Medium-Range
• Intermediate-Range
• Intercontinental

• Ballistic Missile Market, By Region:

• North America
• United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• Europe
• France
• United Kingdom
• Italy
• Germany
• Spain
• Asia Pacific
• China
• India
• Japan
• Australia
• South Korea
• South America
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Colombia
• Middle East & Africa
• South Africa
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE