On July 7, 2025, OPEC+ announced a significant acceleration in oil production for next month, signaling a decisive shift toward regaining global market share. At a virtual meeting on Saturday, eight key members of the alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to increase oil supply by 548,000 barrels per day—substantially above the 411,000 barrels per day initially expected for August. This move will expedite the rollback of the group’s 2023 output cuts, effectively one year ahead of schedule.

The decision, which follows similar increases in May, June, and July, marks a strategic pivot by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. After years of production restraint, the group is now actively ramping up output to capitalize on robust summer demand and regain volumes lost to competitors such as US shale producers.

According to a statement from OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat, the group’s decision is underpinned by a stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, including low oil inventories. The alliance may consider another increase of approximately 548,000 barrels per day in September, with the aim of fully restoring the 2.2 million barrels per day previously curtailed. A further tier of 1.66 million barrels remains under evaluation.

Despite concerns over a potential global surplus later in the year, driven by rising output across North and South America and cooling Chinese demand, the near-term fundamentals remain favorable. US refiners are processing the highest crude volumes since 2019, and diesel prices have surged, reinforcing the timing of OPEC+’s supply push.

The shift also reflects internal dynamics within the alliance. Saudi Arabia is increasingly asserting control over policy direction, with some member nations reportedly unaware of the acceleration plan until late Friday. Additionally, the production boost may serve as a corrective measure against overproducing members like Kazakhstan, which continues to exceed its quotas.

While the increase may be welcomed by the US administration, seeking relief from inflation and high energy costs, it introduces risks of oversupply. Analysts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs warn that crude prices could decline to USD60 per barrel or lower by Q4 2025, undermining revenues for key exporters.