On June 23, 2025, the recent unprecedented U.S. airstrikes on Iran have significantly heightened geopolitical risks, unsettling global markets and governments amid ongoing regional tensions. These strikes mark Washington’s first direct military action against Iran in decades, escalating an already volatile Middle East landscape and injecting fresh uncertainty into a global economy grappling with the fallout from U.S.-China trade tensions.

President Donald Trump authorized the deployment of Massive Ordnance Penetrator (bunker-busting) bombs targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation involved 125 aircraft; Tomahawk missile strikes launched from submarines and marked the first combat use of such powerful bunker-busting munitions by the U.S. military. This decisive military action has rattled markets, with oil prices surging nearly 6% in early Asian trading to approach USD100 per barrel amid concerns over further Iranian retaliation and disruptions to oil supply routes.

The Iranian government has warned of a measured yet forceful response, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasizing that Tehran reserves all options. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reporting directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader, indicated that U.S. military bases in the region could be targeted, intensifying fears of a wider conflict. President Trump has signaled that any Iranian retaliation would be met with a response “far greater” in scale, while also suggesting the possibility of regime change, though U.S. and Israeli officials have downplayed this as a current objective.

Heightened security measures are underway in major U.S. cities, including New York, Washington, and Los Angeles, with increased patrols at religious and diplomatic sites. The Department of Homeland Security has raised the national threat level through late September, reflecting concerns over potential retaliatory attacks.

Market uncertainty is compounded by unclear assessments of the airstrikes’ effectiveness, especially regarding Iran’s heavily fortified Fordow enrichment site. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed it has yet to verify the status of the facility or the whereabouts of over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent.

Energy markets remain particularly sensitive, as any attempt by Iran to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical conduit for global oil and natural gas supplies—could cause a sharp spike in prices. Such disruptions pose risks at a fragile juncture, with major financial institutions like the World Bank, OECD, and IMF recently lowering global growth forecasts due to inflationary pressures and trade uncertainties.

Shipping companies and airlines are already adjusting operations. Greek authorities, overseeing the world’s largest oil tanker fleet, have cautioned vessel operators about entering the Persian Gulf, while major carriers including British Airways and Singapore Airlines have canceled flights to the region amid escalating security concerns.

International reactions have been mixed. Russia and China have condemned the U.S. strikes but stopped short of concrete support, while traditional allies such as the UK and France have distanced themselves from the American military action. Iran remains diplomatically isolated, with key partners reluctant to engage militarily, underscoring Tehran’s precarious strategic position.

Meanwhile, Israel has intensified its own military campaign, targeting Iranian assets both within Iran and in Gaza, signaling a persistent and multifaceted regional conflict that continues to fuel global economic and security uncertainties.